How does a Crash calculator get the probability?

From the published construction: crash point = max(1, floor(99 ÷ (1 − X)) ÷ 100) with X uniform on [0, 1). The round reaches x when 1 − X ≤ 0.99 ÷ x, so P(reach x) = 0.99 ÷ x. At 2× that is 49.50%; at 100× it is 0.9900%, 1 in 101.

Is there a best auto-cashout?

Not in expectation. Cashing out at x returns x with probability 0.99 ÷ x, which is 0.99 per unit at 2× and 0.99 per unit at 100×: the same. A cashout point changes how often you win and by how much, never the 1%.

Crash calculator: chance of reaching any multiplier

A Crash calculator gives the chance a round reaches your target under the construction the game publishes. For the Stake-style formula that chance is 0.99 divided by the target: a round reaches 2× 49.50% of the time, about 1 in 2.02, and reaches 100× 0.9900% of the time, 1 in 101. The return at any auto-cashout is 0.99 per unit staked. Enter a target below for the exact figures and the odds against.

Disclosure: VerifyRoll is sponsored by Craze, a competitor of Stake and Shuffle, whose published Crash construction is modelled. Figures here are computed or taken from what operators publish, dated; nothing is estimated.

inputs

Target multiplier (auto-cashout)

At least 1.01×. The model is the Stake-style 1% edge.

presets

Operators differ: the 99 in the formula is Stake's. A house that uses 97 has a 3% edge and reaches every target proportionally less often.

See the maths

Under the Stake construction the crash point is max(1, floor(99 ÷ (1 − X)) ÷ 100) with X uniform on [0, 1). The round reaches x when 99 ÷ (1 − X) ≥ 100x, that is when 1 − X ≤ 0.99 ÷ x:

P(reach x) = 0.99 / x        for x > 1
P(reach 2.00) = 0.99 / 2.00 = 0.495000

The floor to two decimals shifts this by less than one part in ten thousand at any target, so the formula is stated without it. Every X below 0.01 is clamped to 1.00×, which is why no round pays under 1.00×.

At auto-cashout x you receive x with probability 0.99 ÷ x and nothing otherwise:

E[return per unit] = x · 0.99 / x = 0.99
E[loss per unit]   = 1 − 0.99 = 0.01   (1%)

The target cancels out. No cashout point changes the expected loss; it only changes the variance. Limbo shares this distribution with a different source of randomness; see the Limbo page.

resulttarget 2.00×

A round reaches 2.00× in 49.50% of rounds, about 1 in 2.02. Cashing out there returns 0.9900 per unit staked on average: an expected loss of 1.00%.

P(reach target)

49.50%

1 in 2.02

return per unit

0.9900

x × P(reach x)

expected loss

1.00%

independent of the target

common targets0.99 / x

target	P(reach)	1 in	return / unit
1.10×	90.00%	1.11	0.99
1.20×	82.50%	1.21	0.99
1.50×	66.00%	1.52	0.99
2×	49.50%	2.02	0.99
3×	33.00%	3.03	0.99
5×	19.80%	5.05	0.99
10×	9.90%	10.1	0.99
20×	4.95%	20.2	0.99
50×	1.98%	50.5	0.99
100×	0.9900%	101	0.99

The right-hand column is 0.99 at every row. That is the whole point: the edge is the same wherever you cash out.

targets · P(reach) = 0.99 ÷ xrounds per hit

target	P(reach)	rounds per hit	return per unit
1.5×	66.00%	2	0.99
2×	49.50%	2	0.99
3×	33.00%	3	0.99
5×	19.80%	5	0.99
10×	9.90%	10	0.99
25×	3.96%	25	0.99
100×	0.9900%	101	0.99
1000×	0.0990%	1,010	0.99

“Rounds per hit” is 1 ÷ P, rounded: the average wait, not a schedule. Computed at build time from the same function as the calculator.

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questions

How does a Crash calculator get the probability?: From the published construction: crash point = max(1, floor(99 ÷ (1 − X)) ÷ 100) with X uniform on [0, 1). The round reaches x when 1 − X ≤ 0.99 ÷ x, so P(reach x) = 0.99 ÷ x. At 2× that is 49.50%; at 100× it is 0.9900%, 1 in 101.
Is there a best auto-cashout?: Not in expectation. Cashing out at x returns x with probability 0.99 ÷ x, which is 0.99 per unit at 2× and 0.99 per unit at 100×: the same. A cashout point changes how often you win and by how much, never the 1%.
Does this apply to every Crash game?: Only to games that publish this construction with 99 in the numerator (Stake and Shuffle do). An operator using 97 has a 3% edge and reaches every target proportionally less often; one using a different construction needs its own formula. Read the fairness page of the game you play.

Every figure on this page is computed in your browser from the inputs shown. The URL carries the inputs, so a copied link reproduces the result. Last reviewed 2026-09-23.

Crash calculator: chance of reaching any multiplier

Craze publishes RTP on every game and runs its own provably fair Originals.