What does the 0.99 ÷ x formula assume?

The construction Stake publishes: crash point = max(1, floor(99 ÷ (1 − X)) ÷ 100) with X uniform. The 99 is a 1% edge. Other operators use their own numerator or their own construction; read the fairness page of the game you play and adjust.

Is cashing out at 2× safer than at 10×?

Safer in variance, not in expectation. 2× is reached 49.50% of the time and 10× 9.90% of the time, but both return 0.99 per unit staked. The edge is the same wherever you stop.

Why does a round sometimes crash at 1.00×?

Every X below 0.01 is clamped to 1.00 by the max(1, …) in the formula. Those rounds pay nothing to anyone, which is how the 1% is collected.

Crash odds calculator

How often does a Crash round reach your target? Under the Stake-style construction the answer is 0.99 divided by the target, and the expected return at any auto-cashout is 0.99 per unit staked. Enter a target to see the probability, the odds against and the table for common targets.

Disclosure: VerifyRoll is sponsored by Craze, a competitor of Stake and the other operators named. Figures here are computed or taken from what operators publish, dated; nothing is estimated.

inputs

Target multiplier (auto-cashout)

At least 1.01×. The model is the Stake-style 1% edge.

presets

Operators differ: the 99 in the formula is Stake's. A house that uses 97 has a 3% edge and reaches every target proportionally less often.

See the maths

Under the Stake construction the crash point is max(1, floor(99 ÷ (1 − X)) ÷ 100) with X uniform on [0, 1). The round reaches x when 99 ÷ (1 − X) ≥ 100x, that is when 1 − X ≤ 0.99 ÷ x:

P(reach x) = 0.99 / x        for x > 1
P(reach 2.00) = 0.99 / 2.00 = 0.495000

The floor to two decimals shifts this by less than one part in ten thousand at any target, so the formula is stated without it. Every X below 0.01 is clamped to 1.00×, which is why no round pays under 1.00×.

At auto-cashout x you receive x with probability 0.99 ÷ x and nothing otherwise:

E[return per unit] = x · 0.99 / x = 0.99
E[loss per unit]   = 1 − 0.99 = 0.01   (1%)

The target cancels out. No cashout point changes the expected loss; it only changes the variance. Limbo shares this distribution with a different source of randomness; see the Limbo page.

resulttarget 2.00×

A round reaches 2.00× in 49.50% of rounds, about 1 in 2.02. Cashing out there returns 0.9900 per unit staked on average: an expected loss of 1.00%.

P(reach target)

49.50%

1 in 2.02

return per unit

0.9900

x × P(reach x)

expected loss

1.00%

independent of the target

common targets0.99 / x

target	P(reach)	1 in	return / unit
1.10×	90.00%	1.11	0.99
1.20×	82.50%	1.21	0.99
1.50×	66.00%	1.52	0.99
2×	49.50%	2.02	0.99
3×	33.00%	3.03	0.99
5×	19.80%	5.05	0.99
10×	9.90%	10.1	0.99
20×	4.95%	20.2	0.99
50×	1.98%	50.5	0.99
100×	0.9900%	101	0.99

The right-hand column is 0.99 at every row. That is the whole point: the edge is the same wherever you cash out.

Loading calculator…

questions

What does the 0.99 ÷ x formula assume?: The construction Stake publishes: crash point = max(1, floor(99 ÷ (1 − X)) ÷ 100) with X uniform. The 99 is a 1% edge. Other operators use their own numerator or their own construction; read the fairness page of the game you play and adjust.
Is cashing out at 2× safer than at 10×?: Safer in variance, not in expectation. 2× is reached 49.50% of the time and 10× 9.90% of the time, but both return 0.99 per unit staked. The edge is the same wherever you stop.
Why does a round sometimes crash at 1.00×?: Every X below 0.01 is clamped to 1.00 by the max(1, …) in the formula. Those rounds pay nothing to anyone, which is how the 1% is collected.

Every figure on this page is computed in your browser from the inputs shown. The URL carries the inputs, so a copied link reproduces the result. Last reviewed 2026-09-23.

Craze publishes RTP on every game and runs its own provably fair Originals.

VerifyRoll is sponsored by Craze, a crypto casino that shows its working: RTP on every game, crypto in and out, and terms you can read.

Crypto-only: 20+ coins; deposit fees absorbed in most cases

Provably fair originals, 2,000+ slots, 40+ live dealers

Start with a verified email; $10 minimum withdrawal

Craze Rewards: 25% of the house edge back from your first bet

From Craze's published terms, checked 2026-09-27. Full terms at Craze.