What does a Plinko calculator actually compute?

Each row is a fair left/right step, so bucket k of n rows is reached in C(n, k) of 2^n paths. At 16 rows the centre bucket has 12,870 of 65,536 paths, 19.64%; each edge has one path, 1 in 65,536. Multiply each probability by the published multiplier and sum to get the RTP of that table.

Is Stake Plinko 99% RTP at every setting?

Not exactly. The nine published tables return between 98.9063% and 99.1162% by exact fraction; 8 rows low risk is 98.9844%. The headline 99% is a rounding.

How often does the 1000× bucket hit?

At 16 rows, high risk, 1000× sits at both edges: 1 in 32,768 counting both, so 32,768 drops on average per hit. Its share of the return is 3.08% of the table's RTP.

Plinko calculator: bucket odds and exact RTP

A Plinko calculator turns the published multiplier table into probabilities and a return. Every row is a fair coin, so the bucket distribution is binomial: at 16 rows the centre is hit 19.64% of the time and each 1000× edge (high risk) 1 in 65,536. Summing probability times multiplier gives the exact RTP of the table, 98.9764% for 16 rows high risk. Choose rows and risk below for every bucket.

Disclosure: VerifyRoll is sponsored by Craze, a competitor of Stake, whose published Plinko multiplier tables are used here. Figures here are computed or taken from what operators publish, dated; nothing is estimated.

inputs

Rows

Risk (multiplier table)

Multipliers are the table Stake publishes for its Plinko, carried in the fairness package. Other operators publish their own tables; the probabilities do not change, the RTP does.

result16 rows · medium risk

At 16 rows, medium risk, the table returns 98.9883% of stakes over the long run. The 110× bucket sits at both edges; hitting either is a 1 in 32,768 shot, so on average it takes 32,768 drops to see it once.

RTP (exact)

98.9883%

648,730 / 655,360

house edge

1.0117%

1 − RTP

top bucket, either edge

0.003052%

1 in 32,768 · one specific edge 1 in 65,536

bucket probabilitiesbinomial · fair coin per row

reading the chart

Bars are the probability of each bucket; the bold row under the axis is the multiplier paid there. Buckets are numbered 0 (far left) to 16 (far right).

Bucket probabilities for 16 rows, medium risk. Bucket 8 is most likely at 19.64%; the 110× edge buckets are 0.001526% each.

Hover or tab across a bar for its figures.

per bucketprobability × multiplier

bucket	paths	probability	multiplier	EV share
0	1	0.001526%	110×	0.0017
1	16	0.0244%	41×	0.0100
2	120	0.1831%	10×	0.0183
3	560	0.8545%	5.0×	0.0427
4	1,820	2.78%	3.0×	0.0833
5	4,368	6.67%	1.5×	0.1000
6	8,008	12.22%	1.0×	0.1222
7	11,440	17.46%	0.5×	0.0873
8	12,870	19.64%	0.3×	0.0589
9	11,440	17.46%	0.5×	0.0873
10	8,008	12.22%	1.0×	0.1222
11	4,368	6.67%	1.5×	0.1000
12	1,820	2.78%	3.0×	0.0833
13	560	0.8545%	5.0×	0.0427
14	120	0.1831%	10×	0.0183
15	16	0.0244%	41×	0.0100
16	1	0.001526%	110×	0.0017
total		100%		0.9899

See the maths

Each row is a fair coin: floor(float × 2) is 0 or 1 with equal chance. The bucket is the count of 1s over n = 16 rows, so it is binomial.

P(bucket k) = C(16, k) / 2^16
P(bucket 8) = 12,870 / 65,536 = 19.64%   (most likely)
P(bucket 0) = P(bucket 16) = 1 / 65,536

The return is the probability-weighted multiplier. With one-decimal multipliers it is an exact fraction, shown here without rounding:

RTP = Σ_k C(16, k) · m_k / 2^16
    = 648,730 / 655,360
    = 98.988342%

Expected drops to see the 110× bucket once is the mean of a geometric distribution, 1 ÷ P = 32,768.0 with either edge counting, or 65,536 for one specific side.

exact rtp of every published tableΣ C(n,k)·mult ÷ 2^n

rows	low	medium	high	top multiplier (high)
8	98.9844%	98.9063%	99.0625%	29× · 1 in 128
12	98.9795%	98.9893%	99.1162%	170× · 1 in 2,048
16	98.9987%	98.9883%	98.9764%	1000× · 1 in 32,768

Computed at build time from the tables in the fairness package, as published by Stake. Other operators using the same scheme publish their own tables; compare against the game panel.

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questions

What does a Plinko calculator actually compute?: Each row is a fair left/right step, so bucket k of n rows is reached in C(n, k) of 2^n paths. At 16 rows the centre bucket has 12,870 of 65,536 paths, 19.64%; each edge has one path, 1 in 65,536. Multiply each probability by the published multiplier and sum to get the RTP of that table.
Is Stake Plinko 99% RTP at every setting?: Not exactly. The nine published tables return between 98.9063% and 99.1162% by exact fraction; 8 rows low risk is 98.9844%. The headline 99% is a rounding.
How often does the 1000× bucket hit?: At 16 rows, high risk, 1000× sits at both edges: 1 in 32,768 counting both, so 32,768 drops on average per hit. Its share of the return is 3.08% of the table's RTP.

Every figure on this page is computed in your browser from the inputs shown. The URL carries the inputs, so a copied link reproduces the result. Last reviewed 2026-09-23.

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bucket

paths

probability

multiplier

EV share

0.001526%

110×

0.0017

0.0244%

41×

0.0100

120

0.1831%

10×

0.0183

560

0.8545%

5.0×

0.0427

1,820

2.78%

3.0×

0.0833

4,368

6.67%

1.5×

0.1000

8,008

12.22%

1.0×

0.1222

11,440

17.46%

0.5×

0.0873

12,870

19.64%

0.3×

0.0589

11,440

17.46%

0.5×

0.0873

8,008

12.22%

1.0×

0.1222

4,368

6.67%

1.5×

0.1000

1,820

2.78%

3.0×

0.0833

560

0.8545%

5.0×

0.0427

120

0.1831%

10×

0.0183

0.0244%

41×

0.0100

0.001526%

110×

0.0017

total

100%

0.9899

rows

low

medium

high

top multiplier (high)

98.9844%

98.9063%

99.0625%

29× · 1 in 128

98.9795%

98.9893%

99.1162%

170× · 1 in 2,048

98.9987%

98.9883%

98.9764%

1000× · 1 in 32,768